改变现状

布雷特·布拉利

图片来源:Patrick Record

Kim Blisniuk透露了有关南方最大地震威胁的新信息 加州面临

十年前，两位女地质学家去科切拉山谷沙漠徒步旅行 along a southern portion of the San Andreas Fault. One of them was Kimberly Blisniuk, now an associate professor of geology at San José State University. 这对夫妇花了 在沙漠里待了几天，穿越这片土地，研究它的山脊和构造. 

They weren’t sure what they were looking for. The San Andreas is a well-studied fault: 大约750英里的地理裂谷横跨加州大部分地区 预计将引发下一个“大地震” 袭击南加州，尤其是洛杉矶地区. 

尽管如此，布利斯纽克还是想看看地形是否揭示了什么——任何可能的东西 have been missed or not yet understood by geologists before them. 

Sure enough, she found something. And after a decade of work to confirm her discovery, Blisniuk的研究, 3月24日发表于 科学的进步表明这次备受期待的地震——科学家称震级约为80 years overdue—might not ravage LA as much as previously thought.

执着于错误

要理解布利斯纽克的发现，重要的是要了解科学家如何使用 the San Andreas Fault to predict 地震s. 

该断层是太平洋板块与北方的地理交汇点 美国的板. As two plates move past each other over time, they create friction. That friction, or strain, increases, culminating in an earth-jolting release, as explained by the Los Angeles Times.

但故障不只是一条线——还有几条更小的“线” 构成了圣安地列斯断层，《菠菜网lol正规平台》报道说，每一个都承载着一部分压力 that may cause an 地震. 

科学家们试图确定的是哪条链携带的压力最大 《菠菜网lol正规平台》. That way, they have a better idea of where the next 地震 might strike. 他们通过观察断层两侧移动或“滑动”的速度来确定这一点， relative to 一个 another, also known as the “slip rate.” 

科切拉谷有三条特别的路线——加内特山、班宁和使命 溪. 长期以来，人们一直认为加内特·希尔和班宁的压力最大， according to Blisniuk’s study, and that strain would trigger a massive 7.8级 地震. 

根据 2008 Great Southern California ShakeOut scenario这次地震可能会给南加州造成前所未有的破坏，包括 1800多人死亡，50000人受伤，2000亿美元的损失和其他损失. 

但在她的沙漠探险中，布利斯纽克正在研究周围的景观 Pushawalla Canyon, which sits along the Mission 溪 strand. 在峡谷附近，“我 saw these channels preserved in the landscape,” she recalled. 

They were what the study refers to as “beheaded” channels. Blisniuk hypothesized that 由于一系列地震，它们被从峡谷的原始位置移走了. 如果她是对的，那就意味着即将到来的地震可能会稍微摇晃一下 不同的. 

“这项研究确实挑战了我们对历史的看法 the faults and which faults were active,” she explained. “We had to have the soundest data to challenge that paradigm.” 

So Blisniuk began the years-long process of exploring her idea. 

唯一能改变科学的方法就是引入新的思想和观点 科学. 圣何塞州立大学正在促进一种能带来不同观点的环境 so that we can transform science. In doing that, we’re also transforming students and transforming an academic institution.               金正日Blisniuk

新的预报

她的分析发现，这三个渠道，都落在一点点 距离主峡谷一英里多的地方，年龄从25000年到95000年不等 her hypothesis was correct. Seismic activity was occurring in an area that was supposed 处于休眠状态.Blisniuk’s research started while she was a postdoc at UC Berkeley; then she moved her work to San José State in 2015 when she joined the 地质系. 

了解这些水道的年龄，并通过土壤确认它们的起源 成分——使他们能够计算米逊溪河岸的滑移率: 21.每年6毫米. 

Compare that to the Banning strand, which had a slip rate of 2.每年5毫米. 这证实了米逊溪河承载了绝大部分的压力 the plate boundary and the San Andreas fault.

如果班宁火山引发下一次大地震，很有可能 hit the Los Angeles area hard. But if the Mission 溪 strand released the strain instead, it might not be quite as catastrophic.

布利斯纽克说:“洛杉矶仍然会有很多震动和大地震。. “但 it will be slightly less because it’s on a slightly different route. 这次地震 仍然会很大，但高风险的分布会发生什么变化.”

南加州人，或者一般的加州人，可以用这些知识做什么呢? 

“最重要的是，我们应该时刻为加州的地震做好准备， because we know it will happen,” Blisniuk emphasized. “It's just a matter of when.”

图片来源:Patrick Record

Transforming 地震 science at 菠菜网lol正规平台

As she put it, some may consider it “old school” what Blisniuk does—studying how 地震s change geography over time by walking the landscape. 但她的工作为了解地震活动如何影响地球增加了重要价值 society and shape our world.

他说:“我认为，实地地质学家的概念越来越少 people are interested in such work or such challenges,” she explained. “你是徒步旅行 all day, you don't know where you’re going, you’re in the middle of nowhere. 

“有很多资金用于地震研究和监测 toward buying fancy equipment,” she continued. 

“但是付给科学家或地质学家的钱就少了，他们去走路 地图的缺点. 我希望人们能从我的工作中看到收集现场数据的价值 地震 hazard and 地震 geology. That is 一个 of the key factors in understanding 这些断层系统和对地震的理解——我们必须收集这些数据 the earth preserves for us in any way possible.”

In 2019, Blisniuk received the National 科学 Foundation CAREER Award, 一个 of the most prestigious honors supporting early-career faculty. 第二年， she was awarded 菠菜网lol正规平台’s Early Career Investigator Award.

在圣何塞州立大学的工作不仅让她能够深入研究重要的研究; it’s allowed her to make a difference in advancing diversity in her field. 一个移民 来自越南的布利斯纽克说，她选择把她的研究带到上海州立大学来帮助服务 the university’s Vietnamese community.

“圣何塞州立大学以其多样性和吸引不同的学生群体而自豪， 作为地质系的教员，我也是这种多样性的一部分，”她解释道. 

“地质科学领域是最缺乏多样性的领域之一，所以我想来这里 作为一名女性，作为一个少数民族，我已经能够进入地震地质学领域 to transform what every一个 else saw in the field. I came with my own perspectives and viewpoints to reinterpret the science.”

The university’s decision to hire a woman of color is part of what makes it transformative她补充道. 

“改变科学的唯一方法是带来新的想法和观点 这门科学. San José State is promoting an environment that brings in diverse perspectives so that we can transform science. In doing that, we’re also transforming students and transforming an academic institution.”

现在这项研究已经发表，布利斯纽克怀疑这一发现将继续下去 其他研究人员在努力更好地了解迫在眉睫的问题时，将对其进行探索 地震 awaiting Southern California.

虽然地震可能是毁灭性的，甚至对布利斯纽克来说也是可怕的，但每一次地震都揭示了这一点 something we didn’t know before, she explained. And she’s excited to be part of that.

“I want my research to be meaningful,” she said. “Anything I publish, I want it to 经得起时间的考验. I put as much integrity in my science as I can so that in 一百年来，当人们说我错了，他们会意识到我已经尽力了.”